Five Predictions for the New Year
By Patty McDonald
I’m sure that we are all glad to close the door on 2020 and are hopeful for a better year to come. Our world has shifted dramatically over the past year and so much about our lives has been radically altered in such a short amount of time. By this point, we’ve all become aware that there is a “new normal” and life will never be the same. While change is inevitable, it can be difficult. History tells us that times of rapid change usually bring about rapid adaptation. A crystal ball would be nice to help us to figure out how we can embrace the changes that lie ahead of us.
Here are a few predictions about how our workforce may look a little different as we kick-off 2021.
Changes in labor force participation
Fortunately, unemployment rates have dropped since the initial onset of the pandemic. As we move closer to active and effective vaccination and the current situation improves, that trend is expected to continue. Businesses that were able to either retain or bring back their workforce likely did so through practicing agility and adjusting work products and processes. Many of those adaptations won’t be temporary and many employees won’t go back to work the way that they were before. Some of these impacts will likely influence the labor force participation rate - the number of people who are either working or seeking work. Even before the pandemic, the number of potential workers who had “given up” on finding a job was still fairly high compared to the previous 10-20 year period. It’s likely that some of the current dynamics at play may create additional reasons for people to disconnect from the labor market altogether.
Job Skills: As jobs come back, they will look different than the ones that were lost. Many positions have evolved with updated technology, have been adapted for remote work, or require new skills to meet new business objectives. Candidates without the skills to meet the new needs may be left out of the race for employment and will either need to train to reskill or may find themselves in long-term unemployment situations.
Health Reservations: For workers with underlying conditions or those who have household members with health issues, the risk may not be worth the paycheck, especially in occupations with high person-to-person contact. To reduce the chance of exposure to a potentially life-threatening virus, those who have an option to stay home may choose not to work or seek out positions that offer remote options.
Care Concerns: With schools still closed, parents with school-aged children may have to choose between going to work and staying home. Even when remote work may be an option, trying to manage the multiple roles of parent and educator while maintaining work functions can be difficult. Additionally, as our senior population is vulnerable to Covid-19, many will choose to keep parents and grandparents out of long-term care facilities. Both child care and elder care may become a significant obstacle to employment.
A drop in labor force participation impacts business access to talent - fewer people in the labor pool means a more competitive market for businesses that are hiring. For additional information on the labor force participation rate and attracting untapped labor, see our blog post from earlier this year. Further predictions for 2021 are available from Dr. Mike Walden at North Carolina State University.
Digital Literacy is even more essential
The usefulness of technology was never more evident than over the past year. As life in-person came to a screeching halt, life in the digital space took off. Online purchasing, virtual meetings, and tools for collaboration at work quickly replaced face-to-face activities. Workplace technology will continue to evolve to meet consumer expectations, productivity demands, and workflow efficiencies. Already an important workplace skill, digital literacy will become essential and those without it will struggle to compete for work. Read more about the expectations of technology and how it may impact the workplace in 2021 and beyond.
If your employees need to improve their technology skills, we have many resources to help.
Growth in key industries
It’s hard to imagine that some industries have not just survived, but have actually thrived over the past year. While hospitality, tourism, and retail industries took a tough hit - mostly due to the pandemic related shut-downs - industries like Healthcare, BioHealth, and Logistics & Transportation have been going strong through all of it. We expect to see continued growth in these areas as they evolve to meet new demands. Naturally, the BioHealth sector has had the spotlight recently in the development and distribution of a vaccine. Aside from the obvious demand for direct care workers, the Healthcare industry is experiencing an expansion of AI and other technology to aid in diagnostics, virtual patient interaction, and managing patient data which has created new opportunities and career pathways. Also, if you have switched to ordering for delivery instead of going to the store, you’ve become well aware of the importance of a strong logistics and transportation system. Drivers, warehouse workers, and logistics managers have been busy trying to meet the demand in the market. All of these industries are expected to continue to prosper in 2021.
To explore high-growth industries in Frederick County, visit the Local Landscape page on our website.
Gen Z continueS to arrive
The newest generation has already started to enter the workforce and as their numbers grow, they will continue to change landscape of work. While more recently, recruitment and retention programs have focused on attracting Millennial talent, it will be important to welcome the new generation to the workforce and recognize the strengths that they bring. Generation Z, defined as those born between the mid-late 1990s through the early 2010s, are finishing high school and college now and are launching their professional careers. Over the next couple of years, they will make up a larger percentage of the workforce.
Known as “digital natives,” this generation did not know a time that the internet didn’t exist and were raised with digital tools. These workers will integrate well into newly tech-enriched roles and organizations. Like other generations before them, they will bring some new values and needs to their workplace experience. Ironically enough, even though most are digitally connected for multiple hours over the day, they have a preference for face-to-face communication at work. A balance between digital resources and human interaction will be important. More racially and culturally diverse than their predecessors, inclusive workplaces will be essential and attractive. In fact, according to a recent article by Visual Capitalist, most in this generation feel that racial equality is the top issue today.
Human Resources responds with new policies and protocols
All of this radical change leaves HR with some unique challenges to ensure that businesses have the workforce they need to be functional: recruiting to meet new job functions, keeping employees safe at work, and managing policies that address some of the new dynamics impacting workers. Finding and retaining the best talent has almost always rated high as a priority for businesses and this year will be no different. Businesses will need to get creative to find employees and work through onboarding in a largely virtual environment. For positions with a high degree of person-to-person interaction, recruitment may be a significant challenge. Businesses may need to develop and update policies and protocols for safety, when and how to use sick leave, and whether or not to require employees to have a vaccine. Also, perhaps less of a prediction, and more of a mandate: On January 1, 2021 the Maryland minimum wage increased to $11.75 for employers with 15 or more employees (and $11.60 for those with 14 or fewer employees).
Whatever happens this year, Frederick County Workforce Services is ready to support our community with resources and insights for Frederick County businesses and job seekers.